Introducing the Economic Monitor 2.0

by Kristen Stephenson

As a research-driven economic development organization, Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC) constantly monitors metrics and data to understand the changing landscape and health of our regional and national economies. In this blog series, Kristen Stephenson, GPEC’s Senior Vice President of Research & Analytics, takes a deep dive into how economic indicators work together to paint a picture of where the region is headed.

What’s new about the economic monitor?

This month, GPEC launched an upgraded version of the Economic Monitor, a comprehensive web tool designed to provide timely, actionable insights into the state of the economy. The new version tracks 22 key economic indicators – up from 14 in the previous version – covering metrics such as jobs, housing, inflation, spending and production.

Indicators are now grouped by leading, coincident, lagging and “other” indicators. Leading indicators are those that tend to predict future economic trends, for example, the yield curve spread or initial jobless claims. Coincident indicators are those that change with the overall economy, such as employment and gross domestic product. And lagging indicators are metrics that show a change in the numbers after the economy has begun to shift, for instance unemployment rate and household debt. We have also included indicators that do not fall nicely into one of these three categories but are nonetheless important to track due to their impact on the economy, including the S&P 500 index and the federal funds rate.

The economic monitor still tracks changes year over year and period over period with green and red arrows to indicate positive or negative changes. However, the upgrade allows users to also look at long-term trends up to the maximum timeframe each indicator has been tracked and compare any two selected indicators together. Finally, the monitor now incorporates an AI summary feature that uses the data points from the monitor to create a brief text summary for those who prefer a quick synopsis of the data. This is updated on a daily basis, providing real-time information.

What are the current numbers telling us?

The economy is showing signs of moderating, with slower growth than previous years. The most recent national job report for August showed a small increase in employment of 22,000 with a downward revision to the June numbers and an upward revision to July numbers. Arizona and Greater Phoenix performed similarly. However, the unemployment rate remains steady at just over 4%.

Nationally, inflation remains close to 3% with the consumer price index at 2.9% year over year. Greater Phoenix continues its trend of falling below the national average. After reaching lows of a less than 0.5% increase year over year this summer, inflation has ticked up slightly to 1.4% in August. This is better than all but two of the 23 metropolitan areas tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These indicators are especially important to track as they are closely watched by the Federal Reserve in setting economic policy.

Over the coming months, we’ll highlight key indicators, explaining what the current data says and what it means to the economy. To monitor economic conditions in real time along with me, visit gpec.org/monitor. We hope you find the Monitor a valuable tool in understanding the ever-changing economic landscape.

See Economic Monitor