Track Economic Health and Trends in Greater Phoenix, Arizona, and the U.S.
GPEC’s Economic Monitor brings together 22 key economic indicators — spanning jobs, housing, inflation, spending, production and more — to provide timely insight into the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, and U.S. economies. It displays current figures alongside historical trends and updates daily as new data are released, helping residents, business leaders, and policymakers track changes locally and nationally. Hover over table cells for details or click a cell to update the charts below.
This index lists the 22 economic indicators in GPEC’s Economic Monitor and all 37 geography-specific data series. Each series is cited individually with a direct link to its public dataset page.
Leading Indicators
New Housing Permits — The number of residential construction projects authorized by local governments, reflecting builders’ confidence and future construction activity. Rising permit numbers typically signal future growth in housing and related industries, while declining permits may indicate a slowdown.
Initial Jobless Claims — The number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time, serving as a timely indicator of emerging changes in the labor market. A rising trend can signal weakening job conditions, while a declining trend suggests improving employment prospects.
Consumer Confidence Index — A measure of consumer sentiment about the current and near-term economic outlook, based on household survey responses. It reflects how people perceive their financial situation, the broader economy, and expected trends in spending and prices. As a leading indicator, changes in consumer confidence can signal shifts in future consumption and overall economic momentum.
Core Capital Goods Orders — The value of new orders placed with manufacturers for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a proxy for business investment in equipment and machinery. It reflects companies’ confidence in future demand. Rising orders suggest businesses are expanding, while declines may signal caution or slowing economic activity.
Corporate Credit Spread — The difference between yields on 30-year high-quality corporate bonds and 10-year U.S. Treasury securities, reflecting the perceived credit risk of corporate borrowers relative to the federal government. A widening spread signals rising investor concern about the economic outlook or corporate creditworthiness, while a narrowing spread suggests improving confidence and lower perceived risk.
Yield Curve Spread — The difference between the yields on 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury securities, often used to gauge market expectations for economic growth. A positive spread reflects normal conditions, where long-term rates are higher than short-term rates. When the spread turns negative (an “inverted yield curve”), it has historically signaled a potential recession ahead.
Employment (Nonfarm Payrolls) — The number of jobs reported by U.S. employers, excluding farm work, government employment, and nonprofit organizations. It offers a broad view of labor market health. Consistent job growth points to economic strength, while declines may signal weakening demand or recession risk.
GDP (Real) — The total inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. economy over a given period, known as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It reflects the current pace of economic activity, with sustained growth indicating expansion, and declines—especially negative growth over multiple quarters—signaling an economic slowdown or recession.
Personal Income (Real) — The inflation-adjusted income received by individuals from all sources, including wages, salaries, social benefits, and investment returns. It reflects consumers’ ability to spend and save. Rising real personal income supports economic growth, while declines may indicate financial strain on households.
Consumer Spending (Real) — The inflation-adjusted value of goods and services purchased by households, commonly referred to as real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). As the largest component of GDP, it’s a key measure of economic activity. Growth in consumer spending signals strong demand and economic momentum, while declines may indicate weakening confidence or financial strain.
Manufacturing & Trade Sales (Real) — The inflation-adjusted value of sales from the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sectors, reflecting the volume of goods sold across major industries. It provides a timely snapshot of business activity and demand. Increases suggest robust economic momentum, while declines may indicate slowing growth or weakening demand.
Industrial Production Index — A monthly measure of real output from the U.S. industrial sector, encompassing manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. It reflects the volume of goods produced and is sensitive to changes in consumer demand and interest rates. Increases in the index indicate expanding industrial activity, while declines may signal a slowdown in economic growth.
Unemployment Rate — The percentage of the civilian labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work, and available to start. This measure reflects the share of people 16 and older who are unemployed but engaged in job search efforts. A rising unemployment rate indicates labor market weakness, while a declining rate suggests improving employment conditions.
Inflation Rate — The percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over a 12-month period, measuring how much overall prices for goods and services have risen. A rising inflation rate signals increasing consumer costs and reduced purchasing power, while a falling rate may indicate slowing price growth or deflationary pressure.
House Price Index — A measure of changes in single-family home prices, known as the House Price Index (HPI), based on actual home purchases. Rapidly rising prices can signal strong demand or limited supply, but may also reflect worsening affordability and housing market imbalances. Slower price growth or declines can ease pressure on buyers, but may also point to softening demand or broader economic weakness.
Household Debt — The total amount owed by U.S. households across various types of credit, including mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, student loans, credit cards, and other consumer debt. This measure reflects the financial obligations of consumers and their capacity to borrow and repay. Rising household debt can indicate increased consumer confidence and spending but may also signal growing financial strain, especially if accompanied by higher delinquency rates or slower income growth.
Bank Loan Delinquency Rate — The percentage of loans held by U.S. commercial banks that are past due by 30 days or more or are no longer accruing interest. A rising delinquency rate may indicate growing financial stress among borrowers and tighter lending conditions, while a declining rate suggests healthier loan performance and greater financial stability.
Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio — The ratio of total business inventories to monthly sales, indicating how many months’ worth of inventory businesses have on hand at the current sales pace. A rising ratio may signal slowing demand or overstocking, while a declining ratio suggests stronger sales or more efficient inventory management.
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) — The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (ticker: SPY) is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the performance of the S&P 500® Index by holding a portfolio of the same large-cap U.S. stocks. It serves as a broad gauge of market sentiment and investor confidence, with movements often reflecting expectations about corporate earnings, economic growth, and financial conditions. Widely used by investors, SPY offers a real-time view of equity market trends. (‘SPDR®’ is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and has been licensed for use by State Street Global Advisors. ‘S&P 500®’ is a registered trademark of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. This site is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Standard & Poor’s, S&P Dow Jones Indices, or State Street Global Advisors.)
Federal Funds Rate — The interest rate at which U.S. banks lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It is the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for guiding short-term interest rates and influencing overall economic activity. Changes in the federal funds rate affect borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, shaping spending, investment, and inflation.
Trade Balance (Goods) — The difference between the value of U.S. goods exports and imports, measured on a balance of payments basis. A negative trade balance (deficit) occurs when imports exceed exports, meaning the U.S. is buying more goods from abroad than it sells. A positive balance (surplus) means exports exceed imports. Changes in the trade balance can reflect shifts in global demand, currency values, and domestic consumption patterns.
Broad Dollar Index (Real) — The inflation-adjusted value of the U.S. dollar relative to a broad basket of foreign currencies, weighted by the volume of U.S. trade with each country. A rising index indicates a stronger dollar, making U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, which can affect trade balances and global competitiveness. A declining index suggests a weaker dollar, potentially boosting exports and raising import costs.
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The Economic Monitor offers publicly-available data on economic indicators for the US, Arizona, and Greater Phoenix. It is for general information only and is not a prediction of future market or investment performance, nor a tool for market timing. This content is not legal, tax, financial, or investment advice, and should not be taken as specific recommendations. For guidance on your individual situation, consult a qualified attorney, accountant, or financial professional.
