Economic Monitor

This index lists the 22 economic indicators in GPEC’s Economic Monitor and all 36 geography-specific data series. Each series is cited individually with a direct link to its public dataset page.

Leading Indicators

• New Housing Permits — The number of residential construction projects authorized by local governments, reflecting builders’ confidence and future construction activity. Rising permit numbers typically signal future growth in housing and related industries, while declining permits may indicate a slowdown.
  • United States — U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, New Residential Construction. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized in Permit-Issuing Places: Total Units [PERMIT]. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Frequency: monthly.
  • Arizona — U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey (BPS). Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits for Arizona [AZBPPRIVSA]. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
  • Greater Phoenix — U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey (BPS). Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits for Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ (MSA) [PHOE004BPPRIVSA]. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
• Initial Jobless Claims — The number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time, serving as a timely indicator of emerging changes in the labor market. A rising trend can signal weakening job conditions, while a declining trend suggests improving employment prospects.
  • United States — U.S. Employment and Training Administration, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims [IC4WSA]. 4-week moving average, seasonally adjusted. Frequency: weekly.
  • Arizona — U.S. Employment and Training Administration, State Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Initial Claims in Arizona [AZICLAIMS]. Not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: weekly.
• Consumer Expectations Index — A measure of how consumers view their personal financial prospects and the broader economy in the short and long term. Based on survey responses about expected changes in finances and business conditions, it reflects consumer confidence in future economic trends.
  • United States — University of Michigan, Survey Research Center, Surveys of Consumers. Indexed to Q1 1966 = 100, not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
• Core Capital Goods Orders — The value of new orders placed with manufacturers for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a proxy for business investment in equipment and machinery. It reflects companies’ confidence in future demand. Rising orders suggest businesses are expanding, while declines may signal caution or slowing economic activity.
  • United States — U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Manufacturers’ New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft [NEWORDER]. Current dollars, seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
• Corporate Credit Spread — The difference between yields on Baa-rated corporate bonds and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating the perceived credit risk of corporate borrowers relative to the government. A widening spread signals rising investor concern about economic conditions or corporate creditworthiness, while a narrowing spread suggests increased confidence and lower perceived risk.
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  • United States — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Interest Rate Spreads.. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Relative to Yield on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [BAA10Y].. Not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: daily.
• Yield Curve Spread — The difference between the yields on 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury securities, often used to gauge market expectations for economic growth. A positive spread reflects normal conditions, where long-term rates are higher than short-term rates. When the spread turns negative (an “inverted yield curve”), it has historically signaled a potential recession ahead.
  • United States — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Interest Rate Spreads. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y3M]. Not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: daily.

Coincident Indicators

• Employment (Nonfarm Payrolls) — The number of jobs reported by U.S. employers, excluding farm work, government employment, and nonprofit organizations. It offers a broad view of labor market health. Consistent job growth points to economic strength, while declines may signal weakening demand or recession risk.
  • United States — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Establishment Survey) – All Employees, Total Nonfarm. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
  • Arizona — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (State and Metro Area) – All Employees, Total Nonfarm in Arizona. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
  • Greater Phoenix — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (State and Metro Area) – All Employees, Total Nonfarm in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
• GDP (Real) — The total inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. economy over a given period, known as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It reflects the current pace of economic activity, with sustained growth indicating expansion, and declines—especially negative growth over multiple quarters—signaling an economic slowdown or recession.
  • United States — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1]. Chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Frequency: quarterly.
  • Arizona — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP by State. Chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Frequency: quarterly.
  • Greater Phoenix — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP by County. Computed as the sum of Maricopa County and Pinal County real GDP. Chained 2017 dollars, not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: annual.
• Personal Income (Real) — The inflation-adjusted income received by individuals from all sources, including wages, salaries, social benefits, and investment returns. It reflects consumers’ ability to spend and save. Rising real personal income supports economic growth, while declines may indicate financial strain on households.
  • United States — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real Personal Income [RPI]. Chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Frequency: monthly.
  • Arizona — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Personal Income for States and Metropolitan Areas. Chained 2017 dollars, not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: annual.
• Consumer Spending (Real) — The inflation-adjusted value of goods and services purchased by households, commonly referred to as real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). As the largest component of GDP, it’s a key measure of economic activity. Growth in consumer spending signals strong demand and economic momentum, while declines may indicate weakening confidence or financial strain.
  • United States — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consumer Spending. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCEC96]. Chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Frequency: monthly.
  • Arizona — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Consumer Spending by State. Chained 2017 dollars, not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: annual.
• Manufacturing & Trade Sales (Real) — The inflation-adjusted value of sales from the manufacturing, wholesale, and retail sectors, reflecting the volume of goods sold across major industries. It provides a timely snapshot of business activity and demand. Increases suggest robust economic momentum, while declines may indicate slowing growth or weakening demand.
  • United States — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Supplemental Estimates, Underlying Detail Tables, Spliced Series. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real Manufacturing and Trade Industries Sales [CMRMTSPL]. Chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
• Industrial Production Index — A monthly measure of real output from the U.S. industrial sector, encompassing manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. It reflects the volume of goods produced and is sensitive to changes in consumer demand and interest rates. Increases in the index indicate expanding industrial activity, while declines may signal a slowdown in economic growth.
  • United States — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Industrial Production: Total Index [INDPRO]. Indexed to 2017 = 100, seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.

Lagging Indicators

• Unemployment Rate — The percentage of the civilian labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work, and available to start. This measure reflects the share of people 16 and older who are unemployed but engaged in job search efforts. A rising unemployment rate indicates labor market weakness, while a declining rate suggests improving employment conditions.
  • United States — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey – Unemployment Rate. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
  • Arizona — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) – Unemployment Rate in Arizona. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
  • Greater Phoenix — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) – Unemployment Rate in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ MSA. Not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
• Inflation Rate — The percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over a 12-month period, measuring how much overall prices for goods and services have risen. A rising inflation rate signals increasing consumer costs and reduced purchasing power, while a falling rate may indicate slowing price growth or deflationary pressure.
  • United States — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
  • Greater Phoenix — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). Not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: bi-monthly.
• House Price Index — A measure of changes in single-family home prices, known as the House Price Index (HPI), based on actual home purchases. Rapidly rising prices can signal strong demand or limited supply, but may also reflect worsening affordability and housing market imbalances. Slower price growth or declines can ease pressure on buyers, but may also point to softening demand or broader economic weakness.
  • United States — Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA House Price Index. Indexed to Jan 1991 = 100, not seasonally adjusted, traditional, purchase only. Frequency: monthly.
  • Arizona — Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA House Price Index. Indexed to Q1 1991 = 100, not seasonally adjusted, traditional, purchase only. Frequency: quarterly.
  • Greater Phoenix — Federal Housing Finance Agency, FHFA House Price Index. Indexed to Q1 1991 = 100, not seasonally adjusted, traditional, purchase only. Frequency: quarterly.
• Household Debt — The total amount owed by U.S. households across various types of credit, including mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, student loans, credit cards, and other consumer debt. This measure reflects the financial obligations of consumers and their capacity to borrow and repay. Rising household debt can indicate increased consumer confidence and spending but may also signal growing financial strain, especially if accompanied by higher delinquency rates or slower income growth.
  • United States — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Household Debt and Credit Report. Current dollars, not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: quarterly.
• Bank Loan Delinquency Rate — The percentage of loans held by U.S. commercial banks that are past due by 30 days or more or are no longer accruing interest. A rising delinquency rate may indicate growing financial stress among borrowers and tighter lending conditions, while a declining rate suggests healthier loan performance and greater financial stability.
  • United States — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Charge-Off and Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks [DRALACBS]. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: quarterly.
• Business Inventory-to-Sales Ratio — The ratio of total business inventories to monthly sales, indicating how many months’ worth of inventory businesses have on hand at the current sales pace. A rising ratio may signal slowing demand or overstocking, while a declining ratio suggests stronger sales or more efficient inventory management.
  • United States — U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio [ISRATIO]. Seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.

Other Indicators

• S&P 500 ETF (SPY) — The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF (ticker: SPY) is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the performance of the S&P 500® Index by holding a portfolio of the same large-cap U.S. stocks. It serves as a broad gauge of market sentiment and investor confidence, with movements often reflecting expectations about corporate earnings, economic growth, and financial conditions. Widely used by investors, SPY offers a real-time view of equity market trends.
  ‘SPDR®’ is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and has been licensed for use by State Street Global Advisors. ‘S&P 500®’ is a registered trademark of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. This site is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Standard & Poor’s, S&P Dow Jones Indices, or State Street Global Advisors.
  • United States — State Street Global Advisors, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). Retrieved from Yahoo Finance. Adjusted close price per share, not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: daily.
• Federal Funds Rate — The interest rate at which U.S. banks lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It is the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for guiding short-term interest rates and influencing overall economic activity. Changes in the federal funds rate affect borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, shaping spending, investment, and inflation.
  • United States — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), H.15 Selected Interest Rates. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Funds Effective Rate [FEDFUNDS]. Not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
• Trade Balance (Goods) — The difference between the value of U.S. goods exports and imports, measured on a balance of payments basis. A negative trade balance (deficit) occurs when imports exceed exports, meaning the U.S. is buying more goods from abroad than it sells. A positive balance (surplus) means exports exceed imports. Changes in the trade balance can reflect shifts in global demand, currency values, and domestic consumption patterns.
  • United States — U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Trade Balance: Goods, Balance of Payments Basis [BOPGTB]. Current dollars, seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.
• Broad Dollar Index (Real) — The inflation-adjusted value of the U.S. dollar relative to a broad basket of foreign currencies, weighted by the volume of U.S. trade with each country. A rising index indicates a stronger dollar, making U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, which can affect trade balances and global competitiveness. A declining index suggests a weaker dollar, potentially boosting exports and raising import costs.
  • United States — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Summary Measures of the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Real Broad Dollar Index [RTWEXBGS]. Indexed to Jan 2006 = 100, not seasonally adjusted. Frequency: monthly.

What is the Economic Monitor?

The Economic Monitor is a free, public-facing economic intelligence tool created by the Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC). It brings together 22 key economic indicators spanning jobs, housing, inflation, spending, production, and more to provide timely insight into the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, and U.S. economies. The tool features an interactive data table, historical charts, and an AI-generated summary, all updated daily as new government data are released.

Who is the Economic Monitor for?

The Economic Monitor is designed for anyone interested in understanding the economy, including residents, business leaders, policymakers, journalists, educators, and researchers. It requires no expertise, login, or subscription.

Where does the data come from?

All data comes from authoritative public sources, including the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the University of Michigan. Each series is documented in the Source Index below with a direct link to its original public dataset.

How often is the data updated?

The Economic Monitor checks for new data every day. As government agencies release new figures, whether weekly, monthly, quarterly, or annually, the tool automatically retrieves and displays the latest values. The “Last Retrieved” date shown in each cell’s tooltip confirms when the data was last checked.

What do leading, coincident, and lagging indicators mean?

Leading indicators tend to change before the overall economy shifts, helping anticipate future activity (e.g., housing permits, consumer expectations). Coincident indicators move in line with current conditions, reflecting real-time economic health (e.g., employment, GDP). Lagging indicators change after the economy has already shifted, confirming trends already underway (e.g., unemployment rate, inflation). A fourth group, “Other,” includes indicators that don’t fit neatly into these categories but still provide valuable economic context.

What do the colored arrows in the table mean?

Arrows indicate whether a value has increased or decreased compared to the prior period or prior year. The color reflects whether that direction is generally considered positive or negative for the economy. For example, a green up arrow on employment signals job growth (positive), while a green down arrow on inflation signals easing price pressure (also positive). Arrow direction and color depend on the specific indicator.

What does hovering over a table cell show?

Hovering displays a tooltip with the indicator’s definition, data source, release frequency, the date of the current value, the comparison-period date, and when the data was last retrieved. This makes the tool self-documenting, so you can understand each data point without leaving the page.

What happens when I click a cell?

Clicking a table cell selects it and loads the corresponding data series into two synchronized charts below the table: Indicator Levels and Indicator Growth. The selected cell highlights, and you can use the date-range buttons (1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 25Y, MAX, etc.) to adjust the time horizon. Clicking the same cell again deselects it and clears the charts. You can also click and drag on a chart to zoom into a specific range, then double-click to reset the zoom.

What is the difference between Indicator Levels and Indicator Growth?

Indicator Levels shows the actual value of a series over time (e.g., total jobs or GDP in dollars). Indicator Growth shows the rate of change (e.g., percent change year-over-year). Separating levels from growth rates makes each easier to interpret, since they often operate on very different scales.

Why don’t some indicators appear in the Indicator Growth chart?

Growth rates are omitted for certain indicators where they would not be meaningful or could be misleading. Some indicators, such as the inflation rate and unemployment rate, are already expressed as rates or changes, so computing a growth rate of a rate would add little insight. Others, like credit spreads and the yield curve, can hover near zero or cross it, which would produce extreme or undefined percentage changes. In these cases, the Levels chart tells the full story on its own.

What are the gray shaded areas in the charts?

The gray vertical bands in the Indicator Levels and Indicator Growth charts mark U.S. recession periods as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee is the widely accepted authority for identifying when recessions begin and end. Displaying these periods helps you see how each indicator behaved before, during, and after economic downturns, making it easier to put current trends in historical context.

What do the abbreviations in the table mean?

Common abbreviations include: GDP (Gross Domestic Product), CPI (Consumer Price Index), PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), HPI (House Price Index), ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund), MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area), SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), MoM (Month-over-Month), QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter), YoY (Year-over-Year), WoW (Week-over-Week), pp (percentage points), bps (basis points), and pts (points). Source abbreviations include FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis), BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), and FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency).

Why are some table cells empty?

Some indicators are only reported at certain geographic levels. For example, Industrial Production is only available nationally, so the Arizona and Greater Phoenix columns for that row are empty. Similarly, some cells may lack a prior-period change if the data is released annually and a shorter-term comparison does not apply.

What does “seasonally adjusted” mean?

Seasonal adjustment is a statistical method that removes predictable seasonal patterns from data, making it easier to identify underlying trends. For example, retail hiring typically spikes in December; seasonally adjusted data smooths out that expected spike to reveal whether employment is genuinely strengthening or weakening. Data labeled “not seasonally adjusted” reflects raw reported values.

What does “chained dollars” mean?

Chained dollars are a way of adjusting economic values for inflation so they can be compared meaningfully over time. “Chained 2017 dollars” means figures are expressed in terms of 2017 purchasing power, removing the effect of price changes. This lets you see whether something like GDP has actually grown in volume, rather than just because prices rose.

What does “Greater Phoenix” refer to?

In the Economic Monitor, “Greater Phoenix” refers to the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), which comprises Maricopa County and Pinal County as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget.

What is the AI Summary and how is it generated?

The AI Summary is an expandable section at the top of the tool that provides a plain-language analysis of current economic conditions. Each day, the full dataset is processed by an OpenAI large language model, which generates three sections: the top five U.S. trends, the top five Arizona/Greater Phoenix trends, and a Takeaways section on the broader outlook. Every statistic cited in the summary appears in the table below, so users can verify the analysis directly.

What is the Source Index?

The Source Index is the collapsible reference section below the table that documents all 36 data series used in the Economic Monitor. Each entry lists the indicator name, its definition, the original government source with a direct link to the public dataset, and methodological notes such as seasonal adjustment status and release frequency. It provides full transparency and enables independent verification of the data.