Greater Phoenix is Bucking the Trend in Key Economic Indicators
Published: 07/22/2024
Updated: 09/12/2024
By Chris Camacho and Kristen Stephenson
Strategic economic development in motion is most evident when outsized impacts on the economy are seen. Greater Phoenix is now bucking national trends in unemployment, in-migration and inflation with all three indicators positively impacting each other, signaling the region’s intentional growth and resilient economy are supporting businesses, the workforce and communities.
Unemployment declines despite high in-migration
Recent unemployment data from May 2024 shows a non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 2.9% in Greater Phoenix, marking three consecutive months with a rate below 3%.
The market saw the largest unemployment rate decline among the 51 metros with a population of 1 million or more, declining by 0.5% compared to the same time last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This favorable unemployment trend has occurred despite Arizona leading in in-migration. Oftentimes, the number of people looking for jobs rises in line with an increasing population, but Greater Phoenix is bucking the trend. The U.S. Census Bureau shows in 2022, 282,700 people moved to Arizona, compared to 204,700 who moved out, resulting in a net migration of 78,000 people. In 2021, Arizona had a net migration of 88,165, meaning the state has gained more than 150,000 new residents from in-migration alone in the past two years — yet unemployment is dropping.
These two indicators suggest Greater Phoenix is a market of encouraged, active job seekers with a business ecosystem expanding to match population growth through employer demand. In fact, in a recent ranking of economic growth based on jobs and investment from businesses by Site Selection Magazine, the region’s Maricopa County ranked No. 1 in the country.
Adding longevity to this momentum, Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC) strategically focuses on drawing innovative industries that create quality jobs for the region, and in the last fiscal year, attracted 49 companies, adding more than 7,400 jobs, furthering the dynamic, resilient economy.
Low inflation creates economic advantages
A strong workforce and growing population of spenders may be contributing to a recent decline in inflation, which has decreased much faster compared to the nation as a whole. While inflation in Greater Phoenix peaked at 13% year-over-year in August 2022, it has since dropped to 2.7%, which is below the national average of 3%. The U.S. peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.
All in, Greater Phoenix holds one of the lowest inflation rates in the country, ranking sixth lowest of the 23 metros tracked by BLS. This gives the region an advantage through stability that makes it easier for individuals to plan for the future and afford essential goods and services, while predictable costs enable businesses to plan and budget more effectively.
The economic standing of Greater Phoenix reflects a robust and resilient ecosystem with the capacity for sustained growth supported by strategic economic development. As GPEC continues to attract innovative industries and create quality jobs, the region is poised for a prosperous and dynamic economic future.
Meet the Authors
Chris Camacho
President & CEO
Greater Phoenix Economic Council
Kristen Stephenson
Senior Vice President, Research & Analytics
Greater Phoenix Economic Council